Objective 1 Determine the ability of geospatial technologies to reliably capture and characterize changes in the vegetation community following wildfire: Using existing field data and vegetation structure and composition maps derived from digital aerial imagery, investigators will produce land cover change models between 2004 and 2005 (pre-fire condition baseline), 2005 (the year prior to the Crystal fire of 2006) and 2006, 2005 and 2007, 2005 and 2008, and 2005 and 2009. In each case, image differencing will be used along with phenologically synchronized, co-registered imagery. This series of land cover change analyses will be performed using Landsat imagery and the result will inform the investigators about the rate at which post-fire changes are occurring. The rate of change estimates will be normalized using the 2004-2005 change detection results and change detection results in areas outside the Crystal fire boundary.

Objective 2 Determine if the Big Desert is moving toward or away from desertification as a consequence of the Crystal fire. Desertification is a term referring to declining soil productivity and the subsequent formation of degraded land areas. Typically the term is associated with poor and under-developed countries but this logic is inverted. It is land degradation and desertification that leads to poverty and political instability. Factors that increase a site's potential for desertification are inappropriate land use (e.g., overgrazing and excessive irrigation demands), climatic variations, and weather conditions (e.g., drought). The desertification process can be exacerbated by large scale disturbance such as wildfire.

The ultimate goal of this study is to describe desertification trend at the study area. A desertification trend model will be developed based on both the vegetation productivity model from Objective 1 and bare ground exposure model from Objective 2. The temporal series of annual composite NDVI and the annual composite of bare ground exposure model will be used as predictor variables in the desertification trend model.